Legalectric

Oh my… looks like I fell asleep at the switch. I’m working on getting back up to speed on transmission, making sure all the Power Plant Siting Act Reports are posted, and yikes, I don’t see the 2023 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment here on Legalectric. Here it is, quick before the 2024 LTRA comes out:

Short version – we’re not short now and won’t be for a while — we are NOT going to freeze in the dark in an incubator without a job:

Here’s the caveat, per that MISO link, page 39 of the LTRA, where things start not adding up:

It’s always been the claim that building all these BILLIONS of dollars of transmission, that WE pay for, means that we can get electricity from a wider range of sources and that the reserve margins would DROP. Yet look at that chart, lower left. It starts at ~16% (above 15%) and instead of going down, it’s ramping up to above 20%! Were they lying then or are they lying now.

Another thing to keep in mind is the “prospective” number is low because of the definition of prospective, that it required a firm development threshold beyond an interconnection agreement, purposefully reducing prospective generation:

Bottom line — take those reserve margins with a grain of salt, both the rising reserve margin over time, and the reduce prospective generation additions.

To check out NERC Reports through the ages, go here:

NERC Reliability Assessments