Legalectric

The June 25, 1998 blackout report needs to be on the interwebs available to the world.

June 25, 1998? That’s the night of the transmission fail that disconnected the Midwest from the Eastern Interconnect. That question was asked by Minnesota Power’s attorney of each and every witness, I think other than MP, but maybe MP witnesses too, in the Arrowhead transmission project hearing, circa 1999-2000. There were cries of “Hospitals will go dark without the Arrowhead project,” “We’re going to freeze in the dark in an incubator” which became “We’re going to freeze in the dark on a respirator without a job” — it was so histrionic.

The Arrowhead transmission project was project 13J of the WRAO Report, and the WIREs Report, which presented many transmission lines, but chose the Arrowhead transmission project as the “be all and end all” of transmission in the Midwest, that it would fix all the transmission problems:

The hearing went forward, 2 weeks in Minnesota, where MP got an exemption from Minnesota Power Plant siting law, and for TWO MONTHS in Wisconsin, for Round 1, then 2 weeks after the cost went way up, and another 3-5 days of hearing later when cost went up again. They got their permit, it’s up…

But in that first hearing, I did get to introduce the report that showed that the June 25, 1998, blackout was NOT caused by too little capacity, it was not caused by an unreliable transmission system. It was caused by corporate greed, transmission operators running the Prairie Island-Byron 345kV’s TCEX flow over the limit, disregarding operating guides, and disregarding requests and demands to ramp the power down, violating MAPP Operating Standards and NERC Operating Policies. SHAME, NSP, SHAME!!! And MP was so tacky, trying to attribute their desire for bulk power transfer to the blackout, that the Arrowhead project would save us. Yeah, right…

Here’s the report, below, it’s a gem, I’m posting this today because I’m shoveling off my desk and there are a lot of gems here, so posting them will get them out into the world in perpetuity — can’t disappear something from the internet! Scanning them in is taking a while, a royal and dusty pain in the patoot, but just for you inquiring minds, HERE IT IS:

Here are a couple snippets, starting with p. 2:

Bottom line?

OPERATE WITHIN OPERATING GUIDE LIMITS!!

DOH!

The report goes on and on with stupid human tricks – the flow was NOT reduced by NSP System Operators:

From pps 10-11:

So if the operators had been doing the job, not focused on keeping that line operating with all that power flowing through it, selling that power, the blackout may not have happened. Great…

And for some reason, NSP operators were not communicating:

300 MW above the operating guide limits:

OPERATE WITHIN OPERATING GUIDE LIMITS!! DOH!

Operator error is a too-generous way to put it — but for the efforts to NOT reduce power flows, the inadequate response of system operators and their failure to communicate the degree of the problem, the blackout may not have happened. And then utilities have the nerve to say that because of the June 25, 1998 blackout, we need the 13j Arrowhead transmission project?

Oh my… just in, a request to suspend the permitting schedule for Dodge County Wind, the Certificate of Need, the wind site permit, and to WITHDRAW the transmission route permit!

There are 3 Dodge County Wind dockets, a Certificate of Need (17-306), wind siting (17-307), and transmission (17-308).  Process wise, it goes to PUC for approval, and the PUC will probably announce a comment period in all 3 dockets. Then Commission will meet, and approve the withdrawal of the transmission without prejudice, so they can refile when they have a workable plan. That withdrawal process will take some time.

That time is an issue, because I don’t see any way they can come up with a transmission plan and get it through the MISO transmission studies to get a permit and start construction by year end.  Tax credit implications — they have a problem. 

As to the suspension of Certificate of Need and wind siting application proceedings, I’d like to see them dismissed without prejudice also, not suspended, gumming up the works at the Commission.  We shall see.

This transmission was absurd from the get-go, a 345kV line with what, a 2,200MVA capacity, for a 170 MW project? They said it was part of a regional interconnection, from the application:

Oh, really? Don’t see it in the MISO MTEP. It’s not… and it’s a radial line, and you just don’t build short radial 345kV lines!

Here are Dodge County Wind’s requests for suspension and withdrawal:

“On August 9, 2019, DCW withdrew its MISO interconnection queue position no. J441, because of the significant interconnection costs associated with that queue position.”

Oh my… what does the MISO DPP Report have to say about that? Just search this report, issued July 25, 2019, for “J441.”

I figured the PUC should have that MISO report in the record:

And check out the summary page on p. 149 of the 150 page pdf.

After getting the 345kV route alternatives “C” and “D” ejected, not to be considered in the FEIS, this is just the icing on the cake!!

Dodge Center Xmsn – Mission Accomplished!

Here’s some background info from just over a year ago:

Dodge County Wind info presentation

July 29th, 2018

From the very beginning, with Dodge County Concerned Citizens working hard to inform people of the project, all three dockets, and Dodge Center’s Tom Applegate going door to door and encouraging people to write comments and send photos showing how the transmission line would affect their neighborhood in Dodge Center, this public input helped call the entire project into question.  With the DEIS rejecting transmission alternative routes C and D, and with the MISO interconnection study showing so many network upgrades needed at a very high cost, this project is no longer viable.  The people affected by this project have had a tremendous impact.

There’s been a lot of speculation about the low wind production during the low-low temps at the end of January.  Turns out there’s an issue not anticipated by MISO that they’re going to have to deal with.  I heard it first from a little birdie who heard it while in a flock…

And now from a bigger birdie with primary info from the horse itself: Turbines apparently have a -22F degree or so automatic shutoff, so when it was way cold, they shut off.

Unidentified temperature cutoff thresholds challenged
wind forecasting in morning of Jan 30. Unexpected
shutoffs led to a large deviation from planned output.

Ummmmm, that’s a problem.  Here’s the MISO update on that:

20190207 MSC Item 04 Jan 30 Max Gen Event317407

And from my “good friends” at Center of the American Experiment, who got it twisted again:

Bitter Cold Shows Reliable Energy Sources Are Critical

Twisted?  What’s wrong with that?  Well, their focus is that it was an intermittency issue, which it was not.  As above, it was that shut-off at -22!  And note the part in their post about “unforeseen.”  And THAT is the problem, because the -22 cut-off was not integrated into the MISO modeling, plans, and that was a surprise, and they’re going to have to figure that one out.  It’s possible, probable, and now apparently likely that we will have another -22 degree spell in the foreseeable future.  So get with it, MISO!

And natural gas.  I keep thinking about that CenterPoint natural gas underground storage dome.  7 billion cubic feet at least.  There’s a lot of gas in storage.  Are they relying on pipelines, and does that reliance take into account the many newer natural gas plants?  Does Xcel share/buy from CenterPoint, take advantage of the storage?  What is the impact of so many electric generators fueled by natural gas?  They did recently do a lot of natural gas pipeline work on that primary north/south line running north from Waseca, was that a capacity expansion… upgrades or maintenance ??

Hot off the press… MISO‘s forecast, much like my all-time favorite industry report, the NERC Reliability Assessment!  Because each region sends its forecasts to NERC, odds are that this is the basis for the MISO part of the next NERC Reliability Assessment.  The NERC reports have showed for a long time that reserve margins are way higher than needed, sometimes 2-3 times higher than needed, and that demand is not at all what has been predicted.  DOH!

HERE IT IS — READ IT:

2018 MISO Energy and Peak Demand Forecasting for System Planning302799

Bottom line?  And remember, this is the industry “forecast” which consistently overstates:

Remember CapX 2020 “forecast” of 2.49% used to justify that transmission build-out?  And all that’s happened since, is happening now, like the MISO MVP 17 project portfolio?

Or more correctly, all that HASN’T happened since, like increase in demand?

This has been an historical, systematic misrepresentation, Xcel’s “business plan” is based on these lies.  From Xcel’s IRP (Docket 15-21), p. 45 of 102:

That Xcel IRP docket continues, and compare peak demand with their bogus chart… what can we expect?

Here’s what I’ve been able to find about MISO J407, the number provided by Xcel Energy in their 16-777 Resource Acquisition docket that included the Freeborn Wind project:

Xcel_Petition_201610-125953-02

And from Xcel’s Petition on interconnection (click for larger version):

And here’s what I could find from MISO:

miso-february-2015-initial-posting

20170117 IPTF Item 01f DPP Updates

20160714 IPTF Item 02 DPP Study Updates

GI-FeS-2014-DEC-J407-Report

GI DPP 2015 FEB West SIS PJM Addendum R2

There ya have it!