Legalectric

Demand is down, down, down, though PJM is going to make us wait until March 11 to see the 2009 State of the Market Report for the full year… boooooooo-hisssssssssssssssssss.

But this little snippet did show up in a web update list:

Sent: Thur 02.04.2010 1:01 p.m.
Subject: 2011/2012 Second Incremental Auction Cancelled

Dear Members,

This is to inform PJM Market Participants that the RPM Second Incremental Auction for the 2011/2012 Delivery Year originally scheduled for July 12, 2010 has been cancelled. Through the 2011/2012 Delivery Year, Second Incremental Auctions are conducted only when there is an increase in the RTO’s unforced capacity obligation due to a load forecast increase. As the 2010 RTO peak load forecast for the 2011/2012 Delivery Year is lower than the peak load forecast used in the 2011/2012 Base Residual Auction, the 2011/2012 Second Incremental Auction is cancelled.

Please direct any questions to the RPM Hotline at rpm_hotline@pjm.com.

So the good news is that PJM is now admitting that “the 2010 RTP peak load forecast for the 2011/2012 Delivery Year is lower than the peak load forecast used in the 2011/2012 Base Residual Auction.” The bad news is that with the RPM auction canceled we will not have new numbers for energy efficiency and Semand Side Management, all those things that they are saying cannot possibly do the job that their planned pet transmission projects can.  Funny how that works.  And this is the kind of thing that needs to be very, very public — demand is so far down that it’s lower than their forecast used!  hee hee hee hee

I love it when the market decides!

According to Forbes, parrotting a press release from Monitoring Analytics, the PJM 2009 year end State of the Market Report will be released by Monitoring Analytics on Thursday,  March 11, 2010, with a press briefing at 11:00 a.m. somewhere in Washington.  It will be available on the PJM site some time afterwards.  Monitoring Analytics is the firm that does the report for PJM.   Is Monitoring Analytics a PJM spinoff?

This is one of those reports that I’m really looking forward to…

Scene from yesterday’s NPS meeting at Camp Jefferson, Lake Hopatcong, NJ

PSEG’s Susquehanna-Roseland transmission line through the Delaware Water Gap is under scrutiny.

Here’s the Daily Record’s photo gallery

Just out – PSEG year end info (just searched SEC and don’t see it there yet):

PSEG 4Q 2009 – Generation Measures

PSEG 4Q 2009 – Electric Revenues

And for some reason, I get that old hook line, a little perverted, i.e., “We gotta lock down our electric revenue, and then we’ll take it higher!”:

Yesterday was the second of three public comment hearings that the National Park Service is holding regarding PSEG’s application to expand the Right of Way and run its Susquehanna-Roseland through the Delaware Water Gap, a premier federally designated “wild and scenic” area.  The good news is that people are really turning out, the first meeting, in Bushkill, PA, was about 100, and this meeting was twice that, standing room only in the log hall of Camp Jefferson.

Here is the NPS’ take on framework and issues for the Environmental Impact Statement:

NPS Internal Scoping Document

Here’s a few snippets that I really find interesting — and of course want to expand on:

Air Quality
Construction and maintenance activities would impact air quality.

Viewsheds
The new transmission lines and associated roadways would affect the visual viewshed. Viewshed impacts would be permanent. A separate viewshed analysis should be done for scenic and visual impacts. A comprehensive list of the viewsheds at DEWA does not exist at this time. However, the APPA is considered a scenic viewshed. The baseline conditions are represented by the current viewshed, which has not yet been evaluated.

Climate Change/Greenhouse Gases
How the project contributes to the production of greenhouse gases and climate change, as well as how climate change would impact the project and park resources must be addressed in the EIS.

Viewshed Appreciation
The new transmission lines and associated roadways could adversely affect the visitors’ appreciation of the visual viewshed. These impacts would be permanent. A separate viewshed analysis should be done for scenic and visual impacts for visitor experience.

The one that jumps out to me is “air quality.”  I note that under “Climate Change/Greenhouse Gases” they acknowledge the project contribution of greenhouse gas and climate change, and that also needs to be added to the Air Quality section, the project contribution of pollutants to air quality.

Why?  Check the RTEP, PJM’s 2007 RTEP that this Susquehanna-Roseland project was based on:

Critical RTEP Issues and Upgrades

PJM continues to address a number of issues with
a bearing on reliability in Pennsylvania and the
regional transmission expansion plans required to
maintain it:

• Increasing power transfers through Pennsylvania to feed eastern Mid-Atlantic PJM load centers including those in Pennsylvania are expected to cause overloads beginning in 2016 on key circuits in Pennsylvania. New high voltage backbone facilities are required to mitigate these reliability issues. The new backbone facilities will also be assessed for their ability to support deliveries from a cluster of new coal-fired generating facilities currently proposed for central and northeastern Pennsylvania. Three major new backbone transmission facilities have been approved by the PJM to resolve growing reliability criteria violations in eastern Mid-Atlantic PJM and west/central Pennsylvania, upgrades that are now part of PJM’s RTEP:

• Susquehanna – Lackawanna – Jefferson – Roseland 500 kV circuit
• Amos – Bedington – Kemptown (PATH) 765 & 500 kV circuit
• Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway (MAPP): Possum Point – Calvert Cliffs – Indian River – Salem 500 kV Circuit

2007 RTEP, p.259-260 (emphasis added)

Beginning on p. 262, the RTEP lists 2,712 (check my math) of coal in queue.  Yup, Susquehanna-Roseland could handle that!  Here’s the full PA chapter of the 2007 RTEP — see for yourself:

2007 RTEP – Section 4k – Pennsylvania

The New Jersey one says essentially the same thing:

2007 RTEP – Section 4h – New Jersey

Those new coal plants and the impacts of facilitating/enabling those new coal plants and the impact on the Class I park must be addressed.   The operational impacts, contributions to greenhouse gases, applies equally to air quality.   This was an issue with Voyageurs National Park in the Mesaba Project review, and it should be here.

Here’s the “study area” designated by National Park Service – the “no data” spot is Picatinny Arsenal.  What happens if you build transmission over an arsenal?  What is the impact on the park if Picatinny Arsenal goes BOOM!?!?!

Here are some articles, thanks to Scott Olson ( Fired up and ready to go one more time! ) for compilation:

• Last stand: Critics slam power line plans across Delaware Water Gap, Appalachian Trail (Daily Record)
  
• Crowd of 200 puts Park Service on notice (New Jersey Herald)
  
• N.J. residents, environmentalists urge National Park Service to reject proposed $750M power line (Star-Ledger)
  
• New Jersey residents make plea to National Park Service to oppose power lines project (The Express-Times)
  

MID-Atlantic Power Pathway and all of PJM’s “backbone” projects in the news:

She’s worried about a larger line rising in the shadow of her house. If the poles somehow get knocked over, “Where’s that line going to fall? That line’s going to fall in my living room.

That’s Farah Morelli’s question.  She’s a regular person who woke up one day with a monstrously large transmission line planned literally in her back yard.  That’s usually the most effective way to get someone to learn about transmission.  It’s a steep learning curve, and what I’ve found in my work with people in the path of proposed transmission is that once they start looking, they find a disturbing fact:  Utilities propose transmission lines not because they’re “needed” but that they’re wanted, wanted to increase their ability to transmit and SELL cheap power in areas where it’s higher cost, and make a bundle in the process.  It’s not that people don’t have electricity (and high price is the best instigator of conservation), but it’s that people want more and want it cheaper and the utilities which make $$$ from that equation want to make it happen.

HERE’S THE REALITY — The PJM 2010 Load Forecast Report and the Monitoring Analytics “PJM 3Q State of the Market” report show that this market decline isn’t anything new and that it’s not going away anytime soon.  The PJM market peaked in 2006:

Today’s News Journal article is a start at pulling it all together, taking a look at the bigger picture, and that bigger picture is what these transmission lines are all about.  Three lines were proposed together, the Potomac Allegheny Transmission Highline (PATH), the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway (MAPP) and the Susquehanna-Roseland line.  These aren’t just transmission lines, they’re BIG HONKIN’ ELECTRICAL AUTOBAHNS, quad (or now maybe tri?) bundled 500kV lines.  Like WOW.  HUGE!

Here’s today’s article:

Lower energy projections put brakes on power lines

Economy, increased efficiency, carbon consciousness delay projects

By AARON NATHANS • The News Journal • January 24, 2010

It was Delaware’s electric doomsday scenario: Living room lights would go dark unless Delmarva Power could import electricity to a growing population.

Just a few years back, power companies lined up to design hulking new lines to bring power from the Midwest, where 56 percent of electricity is generated by coal-burning plants.

Those plans included building a high-voltage line from Virginia to New Jersey that would have unfurled across the heart of Delaware, helping assure reliable power to the state — and costing customers of Delmarva Power $1.2 billion.

But the world changed — seemingly overnight.

Now regional power grid operator PJM Interconnection is dialing back its projections of future energy use amid a sluggish economy, increases in energy efficiency and the new economics of energy in the age of carbon consciousness.

That has set off a domino reaction of delays in power companies’ plans to build those lines, as PJM reassesses when the lines will be needed, if they’re needed at all.

The reassessment is a chance to wean the country off fossil fuels and build the infrastructure around locally sited renewables without having to erect giant electrified structures in peoples’ backyards, said Carol Overland, an attorney representing opponents of a proposed large power line in New Jersey.

“It’s a very good shift. Culturally, that’s a shift we need to make,” Overland said. “It gives us an opportunity to do it differently.”

Although Delmarva has rights of way through most of its planned Delaware route, it is working to acquire the rights to build on long stretches of land on Maryland’s Eastern Shore, through farms like the one owned by Libby Nagel, of Vienna. Portions of the farm have been in her family for 100 years. She has been fighting the line, saying it will interrupt irrigation and get in the way of low-flying pesticide spray planes. She is concerned Delmarva will invoke eminent domain to force the line onto her property.

“This transmission line is about them bringing cheap coal-fired power in here,” Nagel said, arguing it’s more about profits than reliability. “They say we’re going to benefit. But it is a transmission line. That’s all it is.”

The line, known as the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway, was proposed in 2006 by Delmarva Power’s parent company, Pepco Holdings, Inc. It would run from Virginia to Maryland, across the Chesapeake Bay and end at the Indian River Power Plant in Millsboro.

The line originally was to continue on to the nuclear power plant in Salem, N.J., but that leg was pushed back last summer after PJM ran computer models and found that reliability issues in Delaware have eased due to a downturn in electricity usage.

Last month, those models showed a wider shift, which led PJM to tell two power companies that portions of its Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline would not be needed in 2014 as scheduled. The “PATH” project, sponsored by Allegheny Energy and American Electric Power, would link West Virginia to the Frederick, Md. area.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here are the articles on the NJ BPU delay of decision on Susquehanna-Roseland transmission line, but before that, here’s the letter the BPU sent to PJM requesting more information based on yesterday’s decision to put on the brakes:

BPU Secretary letter to PJM

Color me jaded, but what is needed is what Stop the Lines requested in our STL – Reply Brief, based on the sensitivity analysis ordered for PATH:

•    PSE&G must waive any claim to FERC “backstop” authority in the pendancy of this sensitivity analysis and Board deliberation.

•    The sensitivity analysis must include, but is not limited to those scenarios Ordered in the PATH docket:

1.    Susquehanna-Roseland load flow analyses updated to reflect the following changes in generation: (i) all existing generation as of January 7, 2010, which is not scheduled to be retired before 2014; (ii) all proposed generation that cleared the May 2009 PRM Auction; and (iii) all proposed generation with a signed ISA as of January 7, 2009 (“Scenario 1 generation”);

2.    Susquehanna-Roseland load flow analyses updated for the changes in Scenario 1 generation, and updated to reflect PJM’s 2010 load forecast (“Scenario 2”);

3.    Susquehanna-Roseland load flow analyses updated for the changes in Scenario 1 generation, and updated to reflect the demand response and energy efficiency resources that cleared the May 2009 RPM Auction;

4.    Susquehanna-Roseland load flow analyses updated for the changes in Scenario 1 generation, and PJM’s 2010 load forecast (i.e., Scenario 2) and updated to reflect the demand response and energy efficiency resources that cleared the May 2009 RPM Auction;

5.    Susquehanna-Roseland load flow analyses updated for the changes in Scenario 1 generation, PJM’s 2010 load forecast, and to reflect the demand response and energy efficiency resources that cleared the May 2009 RPM Auction (i.e. Scenario 4), and updated to reflect the forecasted additional demand response and energy resource reasonably available for 2014, 2015 and 2016 (i.e. using MW from PATH of 367, 420, and469 respectively); and

6.    Susquehanna-Roseland load flow analyses updated for the changes in Scenario 1 generation, PJM’s 2010 load forecast,  the demand response and energy efficiency resources that cleared the May 2009 RPM Auction, the forecasted additional demand response and energy resource reasonably available for 2014, 2015 and 2016; and updated to reflect additional demand response and energy efficiency projected (i.e. using MW from path of 1,825, 2,140 and 2,403 respectively).

These results shall be distributed to the parties as soon as possible and shall be subject to limited discovery and cross examination, after which the Board shall consider them together with the balance of the record in this matter.

See why it’s frustrating — they just missed the boat completely with the vague request to PJM…

So, on with the press coverage about yesterday’s decision to delay:

New Jersey regulators delay decision on PSEG transmission line

By Mark Peters
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEWARK, N.J. (Dow Jones)–New Jersey regulators voted Friday to delay for up to 30 days their decision on a high-voltage power line proposed by a unit of Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (PEG).

New Jersey’s largest utility has been planning the transmission project for two years, saying it will relieve stress on existing lines, improve reliability and provide access to lower-cost power. But the timetable for what’s known as the Susquehanna-Roseland project has come into question, as other projects in the 13-state PJM Interconnection power market, which includes New Jersey, have been put on hold in recent weeks.

The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities said that in light of the other delays, it will hold off on its decision and request a further review from PJM. The grid operator, in a short letter to regulators this week, said the New Jersey project is still needed and isn’t affected by the delays of other projects.

“We should seek and receive further detailed confirmation from PJM,” said Commissioner Joseph Fiordaliso, before the board voted unanimously for the delay.

The $750-million, 45-mile project planned by Public Service Electric & Gas, which is a unit of Public Service Enterprise Group, would run from northern New Jersey into Pennsylvania. PSE&G could earn up to a 12.9% return on its equity investment in the project, which is scheduled to be operational in the summer of 2012.

In a statement, a spokeswoman for PSE&G said the utility is disappointed with the delay and considering its options to ensure reliable service for its customers.

PSE&G is partnering on the transmission project with PPL Corp. (PPL), which would build the $510 million Pennsylvania portion of the line. PPL won the backing of state regulators there Thursday.

But slumping power demand driven by the recession and conservation and curtailment programs is causing utilities and regulators to reconsider the schedule for transmission projects. Although expected to rebound this year, power demand declined in 2008 and 2009, with last year’s drop being the largest in more than 70 years.

In recent weeks, Allegheny Energy Inc. (AYE) and American Electric Power Co. (AEP) said they plan to delay a $1.8 billion transmission line from West Virginia to Maryland because of a less-robust outlook for power demand. Pepco Holdings Inc. (POM) followed by asking Maryland regulators last week to suspend a review of a $1.2 billion transmission line through Maryland. The companies will await a study of regional transmission needs expected from PJM in late June.

Public Service Enterprise Group shares were at $32.32, down 50 cents, or 1.5%, in recent trading.

-By Mark Peters, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2457 mark.peters@dowjones.com

================================================================

Decision delayed on power project

Saturday, January 16, 2010
Lawrence Ragonese
STAR-LEDGER STAFF

Opponents of a massive North Jersey power project hailed the state Board of Public Utilities’ decision yesterday to postpone a vote on the high-voltage matter for 30 days as the first step toward derailing it.

But BPU officials, at a special hearing in Newark, said they only delayed a vote to ensure they have all information needed to assess the merits of PSE&G’s proposed Susquehanna-Roseland line, especially after a similar power project stalled recently in the mid-Atlantic region.

“The significance of the case makes it absolutely essential that the commissioners be in a position to fully review the record and have the depth of understanding to weigh its benefits and liabilities,” said commission member Joseph Fiordaliso.

At issue is a 45-mile, $750 million high-voltage line that would cut through Morris, Essex, Sussex and Warren counties, which Public Service Electric & Gas contends is needed to maintain reliability of the regional electricity grid. A similar 101-mile connecting line in Pennsylvania got that state’s approval Thursday.

Project opponents say it would harm the environment, make people living near the line ill, and bring “dirty” coal-generated power through New Jersey solely to benefit out-of-state power needs and generate profits for the power company.

“This would be devastating to North Jersey and my town, which will be ripped to shreds by this project,” said Fredon Mayor Carl Lazzaro.

“They’ve never proven they need all of this electricity. It’s all about making money for their shareholders,” added East Hanover Mayor Joseph Pannullo.

The BPU was poised to decide the fate of the project yesterday but agreed to let the issue of the Potomac-Appalachian Transmission Highline (PATH) be put into the New Jersey record.

PATH Allegheny Virginia Transmission Corp. asked permission from a Virginia regulatory agency to withdraw a proposal to build a 276-mile, $1.8 billion high-voltage transmission line from West Virginia to Maryland, due to a weak economy and a growing energy conservation movement.

PSE&G, in a brief letter to the BPU on Thursday, said problems in Virginia and West Virginia had no impact on its power needs or the Susquehanna-Roseland project. But the board demanded a detailed analysis from PSE&G as soon as possible.

“We are disappointed in the board’s action to delay the decision on this important electric reliability project. We are considering our options to ensure that the region’s electric customers have the safe, highly reliable service they have come to expect,” said PSE&G spokeswoman Karen Johnson.

Lawrence Ragonese may be reached at (973) 539-7910 or lragonese@starledger.com

===============================================================

State officials delay decision on PSE&G powerline for a month

By COLLEEN O’DEA • STAFF WRITER • January 16, 2010

NEWARK — The state Board of Public Utilities on Friday delayed for a month a decision on Public Service Electric & Gas Co.’s proposal to upgrade its transmission line through Morris, Sussex and Warren counties.

During a special meeting, the board unanimously voted to ask PJM Interconnection, the regional power transmission organization, to explain its position that the $750 million project is necessary.

The board is making the request in light of the recent withdrawal of a line project in Virginia because new forecasts show it will not be needed soon, and the delay of another project in Maryland for a re-evaluation of power need forecasts in that region.

In a letter sent Friday, the board asked whether PJM plans to conduct a needs review for PSE&G’s 47-mile Susquehanna-Roseland upgrade similar to the reviews in the other states, and to explain whether those two delays have any effect on the need for the project here.

Joseph L. Fiordaliso, the commissioner serving as hearing officer for the project, said that PJM’s brief, two-paragraph statement sent Thursday to the BPU affirming the project’s need was not enough.

“We need more than this summary statement. We need PJM to state how it reached this conclusion,” Fiordaliso said.

The delay cheered the 17 interveners, including several Morris and Sussex municipalities, the Montville Board of Education, environmentalists and a citizens group, all of which oppose PSE&G’s plan to add 500-kilovolt lines to towers reaching as tall as 195 feet. They had been unhappy that Pennsylvania authorities on Thursday approved the part of the line in that state.

“We hope they are going to get a sensitive analysis done. We hope that will show the line is not necessary,” said Dave Slaperud of the Stop the Lines citizens group.

“There is a safer and better way to do this,” said East Hanover Mayor Joseph Pannullo, who opposes the upgrade because he believes electromagnetic fields from the lines cause health problems.

Karen Johnson, a PSE&G spokeswoman, said the utility was discouraged by the delay.

“We are considering our options to ensure that the region’s electric customers have the safe, highly reliable service they have come to expect,” Johnson said.

One of those options is to bypass the state review and seek approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which can evaluate and OK a project if local authorities have not acted within a year, as is now the case here.

Efforts by PSE&G to settle differences with officials along the line by paying amounts ranging from $200,000 to more than $400,000 to cover costs associated with construction were largely rejected — only three of 16 towns affected agreed to the settlements.

Colleen O’Dea: 973-428-6655; codea@gannett.com.

===============================================

Susquehanna-Roseland line approved with conditions in Pennsylvania; New Jersey vote is delayed

By Express-Times staff
January 15, 2010, 8:38PM

The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities today postponed its vote on a Pennsylvania-New Jersey power line that would cross the Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area and a portion of Hardwick Township.

Its delay came a day after the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission granted conditional approval to the Susquehanna-Roseland project linking the Berwick, Pa., area to Roseland, N.J.

Allentown-based PPL Electric Utilities proposes building the Pennsylvania portion of the 500-kilovolt line, with Public Service Enterprise Group picking up the project at the New Jersey border and continuing it along an existing 230-kilovolt line.

PSE&G says the 130-mile line is mandated by PJM Interconnection, the regional entity responsible for planning the transmission system, to meet projected regional demand. Its $900 million to $1 billion cost would be shared among the 51 million electric customers in the PJM region covering 13 states and the District of Columbia, according to the utility company.

Pennsylvania officials’ approval is not final until an order is entered by the utility commission. Among conditions imposed in Thursday’s votes are that construction may not begin until the National Park Service issues necessary permits to build in the Delaware Water Gap area. The park service has said it does not expect to issue the permits until May 2012. The commission’s approval would expire in three years unless construction has begun, under another condition of approval.

The New Jersey Board of Public Utilities voted unanimously today to consider new evidence on the need for the project, particularly to determine if demand truly exists for the additional power. Board members said they expect to rule on approval within 30 days.

The delay follows a request by PATH Allegheny Virginia Transmission Corp. to a Virginia regulatory agency to withdraw its proposal to build a 276-mile, $1.8 billion high-voltage transmission line from West Virginia, through Virginia and to Maryland. The company cited a weak economy and growing energy conservation movement.