2024 NERC Long-Term Reliability Assessment
January 18th, 2025
Here it is, one of my favorite resources of all time — NERC’s Long Term Reliability Assessment. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sets the reliability standards for our electric system. It comes out annually and gives an overview of our electric situation based on utility information forwarded to NERC. Logically, there’s some bias here, but NERC has inserted some reality orientation over the years, particularly in documentation of reserve margins, based on what’s up and running, and what’s likely to be built over the foreseeable future (knowing that all that’s planned is not gold).
You can find LTRAs going way, way back — I have them from 1998 forward, and now I see they’re going back to 1992, so I’ll grab those before they disappear. Here’s the list from their “Reliability Assessments” page, nope, doesn’t copy well, so you’ll have to go to the “Reliability Assessments” page, well worth the trip!
As for the 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, here ’tis:
And if you really want to dig in, here are Supplemental Charts and Graphs — what fun!
Supplemental Charts and Graphs
Here’s what you’ll find:
Here’s something that jumps out at me — the reserve margins (p. 13):
Forever, the standard reserve margin has been at 15%, but when they started this massive transmission build-out 20 years ago, the mantra was that by building so much transmission, by interconnecting everything, able to send those electrons from any “Point A” to any “Point B,” RESERVE MARGINS WOULD BE LOWER!! So take a look at these reserve margins, and do tell, why oh why is that “Figure 3” chart stretching all the way to 25%, and even more bizarre, WHY IS FIGURE 4 SHOWING MISO FIVE-YEAR PLANING RESERVE MARGIN — WINTER WAY UP TO 60%, AND AT ITS LOWEST, NEARLY 40%??? Looks to me that through 2029, we’re doing just fine. Note that it’s Summer 2029 that’s it’s just below 15% “Anticipated” and just above “Prospective” and every year there are more and more projects proposed. We are NOT going to freeze in the dark in an incubator without a job. Prove me wrong!!!
Back in 1999, in the midst of a transmission hearing, as I was seriously getting into the engineering, transmission specifications, electric reliability, and forecasting of transmission and generation, an engineer approached with a document in hand, the 1998 NERC Report, saying “YOU NEED THIS!” Yup, sure did. That report demonstrated that the histrionics about need for transmission was absurd. Oh well, they built it all anyway, and so much more to follow.
Thanks, NERC, for a little light reading in the dark depths of winter!
Written by someone who KNOWS, this book is great, and his testimony is even better!
George C. Loehr, Testimony, Hearings of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, July 31, 2008
His leading points?
And if you’re looking for some wonkish light reading, complete with SCADA and N-1 references, check out:
“We are only four meals from anarchy!” Maybe a few more, but remember virulent sturm and drang when people couldn’t get their hair done in 2020?!?!?!
What happens to the system when the CapX 2020 system goes down? And now MISO is proposing an even higher voltage 765KV “electric superhighway.”
Distributed generation, anyone??
Jack Smith’s Report Released
January 14th, 2025
Here’s the Jack Smith Report that has been so difficult to release — take the time to read it. The first two sentences is a great start:
Trump is having a fit… must be a lot of truths in this… so read it
Tomorrow, Maisy is OUR DOG!!
January 14th, 2025
Maisy’s the one, coming home with us tomorrow! She was very sociable with us, while Boomer was afraid, hiding in a corner, pawing at the door to get out, wouldn’t come for treats or pets. Wanted nothing to do with us, though he was attached to the shelter worker.
Here he is, Boomer, the one who caught Alan’s attention, 3.5 year old male, over puppy stage. Here’s the link for Boomer:
We were on a bench in the cat room, and as soon as Alan crawled down in the middle of the floor, Boomer ran over to me for attention and I was able to hold him in my lap. He did that a couple times, and we tried again, experimenting, Alan moving from the bench to the floor, and he’d jump up. Seriously avoiding Alan. Maisy, on the other hand was an equal opportunity attention seeking grrrrrrrrrl. Loves balls, chew toys, and we have many, and she’ll love going to the tennis court to “play tennis.” We have some time to get the house ready, like dig out the cloth crate, put the dog food bucket back in the mudroom and DOH! get some dog food, sort out the dog toys (I did gather them and they’re washed), and lay out the many dog beds (she’s pretty much the same size as Sadie, our “medium” pup).
Some backstory — she is 6.5 years old (much prefer older dog) and she and Boomer lived together, though not really bonded, and lived with cats. Their owner needed to move to apartment and was upset to lose them. She’d been boarded at the shelter before and they went to our vet, so she’s a known quantity. They haven’t been at shelter long, were just posted yesterday, and they’ve lived with cats so we’ll see how she does with ours — this is major consideration (there’s a 21 day return clause).
A 34 count convicted felon as President
January 10th, 2025
Couldn’t he have at least been sentenced for 4 years of (White) House arrest, ankle monitor, and be required to turn in his passport?
I can’t imagine how this can work.
And then there’s security clearance — what’s required for a guy who hides boxes with classified material in a bathroom, on a stage in ballroom, whisks many file boxes of them out of White House to airplane — and it’s disturbing news — per Uniform Code of Military Justice page:
So he’s given free rein, and he, with the Supreme Court’s backing, can do anything as long as it’s “official business.” Great, just great… everyone on 5th Avenue best be wearing bullet-proof vests.
Who’s he, who’s his administration coming after?
And now, need to shut off internet — too much already today.
Coffee attenuates causes of mortality!
January 2nd, 2025
Impact of coffee intake on human aging: Epidemiology and cellular mechanisms
Potential 17% impact!
CHEERS!