Legalectric

Yes, it’s true, the snow is now gone.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) released its 2012 Long Term Reliability Assessment last November.  This rates a BIG SIGH, I have yet to post it.  How can that be?  Well, November was a hectic time, to put it mildly, but then I look and it’s the same thing last year.  Anyway, here we go!

2012_NERC LONG TERM RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT_FINAL

And in case you missed it:

2011 NERC LONG TERM RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

Now, as to some of the specifics in the 2012 Reliability Assessment.  I was recently asked about “wind replacing coal” which is a popular fallacy, because it doesn’t replace coal, not physically, not electrically, not legally, no way, no how.

From the NERC 2012 Long Term Reliability Assessment, p. 103-104 (click for larger version):

And NERC Report p. 107 – Retiring coal plants are the old small ones (divide the MW by units)
When you’re hearing people crowing about less coal generation, about using less coal, and about generating less CO2, that’s all because there’s less demand, they’re not needing the old, expensive smaller coal plants to meet demand.

Another view of retirements –dispatch is on “economic” basis, meaning cheapest first.  That means big coal.  The old small coal plants are very costly to run and usually don’t.  What this means is that they can shut down the small inefficient and uneconomic plants without suffering because they don’t need them for demand, and they’re high priced to operate and usually sit idle anyway.  Now that natural gas is so cheap, it also means natural gas, although in Midwest, they don’t use gas for baseload, as they do on east coast.  So the gas here is peaking power, and is usually more expensive because it’s owned by IPP and under Power Purchase Agreements for peaking (high price).  Though Xcel owns its own gas now, remember it repowered a couple old coal plants, and they probably could use that more often and don’t have to pay the higher prices of peaking PPAs.  See Retirements, NERC Report, p. 8 of 335:

And remember, not one Renewable Energy Standard “replaces” anything.  It is a mandate to generate more electricity ON TOP OF the surplus.  And the mandate is needed because there is no market.  It’s adding surplus to surplus.  Not one RES in the nation says “generation X MW of renewable and decrease fossil by X or X-Y or ?.”  There is no replacement intended or accomplished.  Further unlike solar, wind is off peak, when they’re doing their market transactions, selling all the coal they can.  How much can they sell?  Well, it’s not reported in the MISO section of the NERC report, which states that only internal transactions MISO are reported (again, click for larger view):

Anyway, bottom line is that reserve margins are twice what they need to be (click chart for the big picture):

Today begins a holiday weekend in SE Minnesota, well, it started yesterday, but so did the snow, so we’re getting a late start.

100 mile garage sale!

Clean up started in earnest today, they had a bucket truck, bobcat and pick up, and I woke up to a chorus of chain saws.

The office is CLOSED today!

Need I say more?  Well, there is more coming down, it’s snowing steadily…

Guy from City just came through with a front end loader and rammed into the tree and ripped it apart and plowed it over to the side:

What a mess.  Once they get a plow through, snow seems to melt and it’s passable, but all over the walks and yards, it’s just sitting there.  Nobody is moving.  Mailman was climbing around the tree limbs, they’re everywhere.  If I could get out, I’d seriously consider heading to Costa Rica.  This is absurd.

They did change the headline, but the Red Wing Republican Eagle (“the Beagle”) printed my Commentary on Wednesday (the same day that the Public Utilities Commission postponed the Goodhue Wind May 2nd agenda item until June 20th!):

Commentary: Respect blows strong for Earth and citizens

By: Carol Overland, The Republican Eagle

As I write this on Earth Day, I’m preparing for the Public Utilities Commission’s meeting next week which may seal the fate of the proposed Goodhue Wind project.

This is a poignant example of our obligation to respect the earth and its residents. By whatever name, this wind project has failed abysmally on all counts.

Citizen groups, individuals and elected officials have worked on this project for almost five years, and they have learned not only about this particular project, but about wind generation impacts.

Participation is the foundation of our democracy, and the people showed up, building their credibility at every turn. Local government wrestled with divergent interests to responsibly address the issues at stake. At tremendous cost and effort, residents learned to navigate regulatory agencies, respectfully participate in many meetings, research and consult experts, network with others, meet with county, federal and state agencies and committees, join a contested case, hold informational meetings with films and speakers, write comments and press releases, and testify before decision-makers. It’s been an exhausting rollercoaster ride.

Why pull the plug? The project has fallen apart.

T. Boone Pickens took his financing and turbines, abandoning the project. Trishe Wind, purchaser of National Wind, rejected the project. NSP declared the Power Purchase Agreements in default and rejected all subsequent proposals.

Ventum Energy, the sole local interest, was administratively terminated last August. New owner New Era operates out of a P.O. Box and doesn’t pick up mail.

There’s nothing left.

This project fails as a matter of energy policy, because it would not replace a single megawatt of fossil generation or reduce CO2 levels. The Renewable Energy Standard is a mandate to add generation, but it’s not “either/or,” because there’s no replacement or shutdown of fossil generation.

We have an electricity surplus, and the RES adds to that surplus, which utilities sell on the market rather than cut fossil generation.

Xcel Energy doesn’t need Goodhue Wind because it’s met its RES quota far ahead of schedule. Further, Goodhue Wind is not locally owned, not locally financed, and is not community energy development by any definition.

Developers utilized unethical practices in securing land contracts and silencing those who signed them, pitting neighbors and family members against each other. Much is deemed “trade secret,” but landowners are backing out, and the project’s land control is in doubt.

The Public Utilities Commission has asked reasonable questions, and New Era has not answered.

Environmentally, the Goodhue Wind project would do much harm. Despite Minnesota’s unfortunate exemption of wind projects from environmental review, we learned that “renewable” doesn’t mean there are no harmful impacts.

This project is located along the largest migratory bird pathway in North America. Eagles nest in the project footprint and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service estimates the project would kill eight to 14 eagles annually, 160-240 dead eagles over a 20-year project life.

The developers haven’t completed avian and bat surveys, one monitor has been hanging broken for seven months, and they refuse to comply with USFWS modeling guidance. Contractors have exhibited gross arrogance in conducting surveys and in contacts with landowners, including alleged trespassing and initiating legal action against a lawful resident, enraging the judge who dismissed the case.

Were the project built, it would be without regard to the residents and livestock, with turbines closer than the county ordinance prescribes, and closer than recommended by the Minnesota Department of Health.

If built, the project would inflict low frequency noise on adjacent residents and subject them to shadow flicker for which Commerce suggests “shades” as mitigation. The only way to mitigate the impacts is to site with adequate setbacks, such as the one-half mile buffer which the health department notes should eliminate complaints.

Wind must be sited correctly, because turbines aren’t easily moved.

This is Earth Day. It’s not about “being right” but about “getting it right.”

 

Carol A. Overland of Red Wing is the attorney for Goodhue Wind Truth.