2019 PJM State of Market

March 12th, 2020

PJM’s annual State of the Market Report has been released by Marketing Analytics:

What I’m looking for first is demand info, so I’m searching. Here ya go:

It looks like peak demand/load, at 148,228MW is above what it was in 2006. From FERC – Electric Power Markets PJM:

All time peak demand: 144,644 MW (set August 2, 2006), and down to 139,438 in 2007.

Peak demand growth (2006-2007): Peak demand declined 3.6%. See PJM State of the Market 2008, below.

Summer Peak Demand (MW)144,644 139,438
(Source: PJM)

CLICK HERE FOR:  PJM State of the Market – 2008

And about wholesale cost, from the 2019 State of the Market report:

One of the benefits of competitive power markets is that changes in input prices and changes in the balance of supply and demand are reflected immediately in energy prices. PJM real-time energy market prices decreased significantly in 2019 compared to 2018. The load weighted,average real-time LMP was 28.6 percent lower in 2019 than in 2018, $27.32 per MWh versus $38.24per MWh. Of the $10.92 per MWh decrease, 41.5 percent was a result of lower fuel costs. Other contributors to the decrease were the dispatch of lower cost units, decreased load and lower markups (2019 SoM,Intro, p 3).

Once more with feeling –wholesale energy costs and prices are DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, yet rates are going UP, UP, UP. DOH! It’s because, like Xcel, utilities are changing their business plan. They’re not making the money anymore on selling electricity, and can make a LOT more by building infrastructure that we don’t need and charging us ratepayers for it. Transmission costing billions; the rebuild and start up of Sherco 3 after 22 months off-line, and then announcing shut down of 1 & 2; the rebuild of Monticello costing twice the estimate; request to PUC to sell surplus Sherco and King plant generation on MISO market (just how is running it for sale elsewhere consistent with cutting CO2?!?!?)…

Another thing I do see is that the Capacity Market is deemed “Not Competitive,” and this has been a documented problem since 2007. DOH! Yet it continues.

Vol 1, Intro, p. 8

If it’s not competitive, why hasn’t the market structure been changed? After all, it’s all about “let the free market decide,” and where it’s not competitive, that isn’t happening, eh? As Marketing Analytics states, “Structural market power is endemic to the capacity market.” From a wiki definition of endemic, “In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic in a population when that infection is constantly maintained at a baseline level…” Houston, methinks we have a market problem…

More to follow, but wanted to get these tidbits out there.

Demand is down, ja, we know that, you betcha… and it seems word is finally getting out!

And we know those utilities and how badly they want to “prove” need, but hey, bullshit by any other name smells as sweet!

Reserve margins are at an all time high and projected to get higher, from the 2010 NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment:

table-5e-estimated-2019-summerAnd then there’s the MISO State of the Market Report agreeing:

Including all demand response capability, we estimate a planning reserve margin in the range of 28 percent to 37 percent depending on the summer capability of the resources that are assumed.  These margins substantially exceed MISO’s planning reserve requirements that have recently increased from 15 percent to 17 percent.

p. iii, Ex. Summary, 2010 MISO State of the Market Report.    Increased required reserve margins?  Hmmmmm, part of their hype on transmission build-out was that it would DECREASE reserve margins… but hey, they said “competition would decrease prices” didn’t they… and they ARE, but not for US, cost of electricity is only lower for those elsewhere, and not for those of us in a “low cost” state.  Consider Xcel’s request to raise electric rates 37.5% over the next 5 years…

And here is Associated Press saying what we already know…

Shocker: Power demand from US homes is falling

By JONATHAN FAHEY, AP Energy Writer – 23 hours ago

NEW YORK (AP) — American homes are more cluttered than ever with devices, and they all need power: Cellphones and iPads that have to be charged, DVRs that run all hours, TVs that light up in high definition.

But something shocking is happening to demand for electricity in the Age of the Gadget: It’s leveling off.

Over the next decade, experts expect residential power use to fall, reversing an upward trend that has been almost uninterrupted since Thomas Edison invented the modern light bulb.

In part it’s because Edison’s light bulb is being replaced by more efficient types of lighting, and electric devices of all kinds are getting much more efficient. But there are other factors.

New homes are being built to use less juice, and government subsidies for home energy savings programs are helping older homes use less power. In the short term, the tough economy and a weak housing market are prompting people to cut their usage.

Read the rest of this entry »

That’s Idiocy Returning on Parade…


Tomorrow night in Dover, the Public Service Commission is opening the doors and it’s your turn to let them know what you think about Delmarva Power’s energy policy, how they’re getting their electricity, what sort of generation it’s coming from, what they’re doing (not) about conservation and efficiency, and what sort of generation you want them to use, i.e., get wind on line NOW!  And tell them we don’t need no stinkin’ transmission!

This is your opportunity.  They won’t let parties testify, so it’s your turn to step up to the plate.

Now for some background.  All the PSC blurbs call this the 3rd Delmarva Power IRP, but it’s not, it’s their third attempt to get it right, and the last one was so bad that they spent years trying and last November submitted a redo as asked by PSC, then a month later, they send a lame cover letter saying that they want to count that November redo attempt as the one due December 1, 2008.

So the PSC grabs that November 2008 attempt and accepts it.  EH???

Right… whatever.

Lame Cover Letter – December 1, 2008

IRP Main Document

Appendix A – Load Forecast

Appendix B – Demand Resources

Appendix C – Resource Model Update

Appendix D – Cost Recovery

You might remember Delmarva Power’s Todd Goodman’s outrageous behavior at the last IRP meeting in December, 2008.  AWARD FOR TODD GOODMAN, DELMARVA POWER.

Well, the Delmarva Power IRP saga continues, and the Workshop, Public Comment session…. whatever it is, it’s tomorrow night.

Tell the PSC that it’s time Delmarva Power get serious about conservation, that we want coal plants shut down, that it’s time to get wind on line, and that we do NOT want the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway transmission line (you know, that line that runs from coal plants SW of Delaware, up through Indian River and to Salem.  PJM admits that the Indian River to Salem part of it is not needed, and it’s time to get the WHOLE truth out, that the entire line is not needed.  See Mid-Atlantic MAPP line cut short).


Tuesday, July 14 @ 7:00 p.m.
Cannon Building, Hearing Room
861 Silver Lake Blvd.
Dover, DE   19904
Or send comments right away to:

Delmarva Power’s IRP is based on an annual increase in demand of 1.9%.  Uh-huh… right…

Look what has been happening to electrical use:


Hmmmmmmmmmm, do you see what I seeeeeeeeeeeeee…

Regulated T&D Sales have gone down.

Default T&D Sales have taken a significant dive.

Despite that, what do they project in the IRP?  From their IRP Appendix A:



Energy use, measured in MWh, has been dropping significantly for years… but we knew that…

Now what about peak?  The Delmarva peak isn’t in their 10-Ks, but here’s PJM:

2008 Peak               136,310MW

Projected Peak    134,430MW

DOWN      1,880MW

DOWN           1.4%

And with 165,200MW of generation and a reserve margin of 28.6% (15% necessary) which even PJM describes as “well in excess,” suffice it to say PJM doesn’t need new power anytime soon.

Read it all here:

PJM 2009 Summer Preseasonal Assessment

And here’s some history – PJM’s revenue decreased 8% in 2008 (p. 9 of 44):

2008 PJM Financial Report

And remember, PEPCO, Delmarva Power’s parent, says that it may not sell shares to finance the MAPP line — so how would they finance it… or would they just admit that it’s not needed and not build it?

Pepco CFO May Postpone Investment to Avoid Share Sale

By Katarzyna Klimasinska

June 26 (Bloomberg) — Pepco Holdings Inc.’s new chief financial officer, Anthony Kamerick, is considering postponing some investments beyond 2010 to prevent selling shares below book value.

Pepco, the owner of Washington’s electric utility, currently plans about $1 billion in total capital projects for 2010, mainly on the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway transmission line and smart grid, Kamerick said. The completion of the transmission line, also known as MAPP, has already been delayed by a year.

“We have to balance, obviously, the need to make sure our system is safe and reliable for the customers,” Kamerick said in a telephone interview yesterday from Washington, where the company is based. “It’s a delicate balance.”

MAPP is scheduled to start service in June 2014 and will run from northern Virginia, across southern Maryland and Chesapeake Bay, to Indian River, Delaware.

Smart grids will be able to detect power failures and automatically isolate them, increasing the reliability of the power system, according to Pepco.

Pepco sold shares at $16.50 each in November and has had a 25 percent decline so far this year. The current price represents 72 percent of book value, or assets minus liabilities, per share, according to a Bloomberg calculation from company data.

Pepco fell 3 cents to $13.39 in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Kamerick replaced Paul Barry, who resigned, on June 12. He has worked for Pepco and its predecessor, Potomac Electric Power Co., since 1970, most recently as chief regulatory officer.