We all know “need” for electricity is down, down, down:

PJM 2009 3rd Quarter State of the Market

Take a few minutes and scan that report — it’s telling it like it is.  Prices down 40+ % and demand down at least 4+% this year so far (that’s what they’ll admit to, and I figure it’s a lot worse than that!).

Decreased demand was a reason for cutting out the Indian River – Salem part of the MAPP line…

HOT OFF THE PRESS, decreased demand is the reason coal plants are being shut down in Pennsylvania, FOUR coal plants in Pennsylvania:

Exelon to close 4 Penn. generating units by 2011

December 2, 2009

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Exelon will shut four 50-year-old power generating stations near Philadelphia in 2011 that the power generator says are no longer economic to operate and are unnecessary to meet shrinking demand for electricity in the region.

About 280 jobs will be eliminated, but the company said Wednesday that it is looking for ways to reduce that number through such efforts as putting workers in other open jobs and buyouts.

Exelon, based in Chicago and one of the nation’s largest power companies, said it will record pretax charges totaling $258 million related to the shutdowns through 2011.

The company will close two units at the Cromby Generating Station in Phoenixville and two units at Eddystone Generating Station in Eddystone effective May 31, 2011.

“Decreased power demand, over supply of natural gas and increasing operating costs, has led Exelon Power to retire these units,” Doyle Beneby, senior vice president of Exelon Power, said in a statement.

The announcement comes a day after Progress Energy said it will close 11 coal-burning power plants in North Carolina that do not have scrubbers by 2017. The units represent about 30 percent of the company’s power generation from coal.

The company will continue to operate three coal-fired plants in North Carolina after 2017 that are equipped with emission controls at a cost of more than $2 billion.

The plan was prompted by state regulators ordering the company to provide retirement plans for the coal-burning plants that lack scrubbers to reduce emissions. Some of the plants are more than 50 years old.

For Exelon, one unit at Cromby operates on coal and the other on either natural gas or fuel oil. They were put into operation in 1954 and 1955. The station will close when the units are retired.

The Eddystone units were put into operation in 1960 and both operate on coal. Two other units that run on either natural gas or coal and four oil-burning units will continue to operate at the station.

Alan says that the Eddystone ones are a couple of the first supercritical coal plants around, they’ve been running for ages.  But that they’d close down the coal and keep oil-burning units?  What gives?  Peaking power?  Or???  Doesn’t make sense to me.  It doesn’t get much dirtier than burning fuel oil.  Those have to go too…

Our coalition of the “Municipal Intervenors,” Stop the Lines! and “Environmental Intervenors” has filed a Motion to Dismiss in PSEG’s Susquehanna-Roseland proceeding in New Jersey.

Here it is – enjoy!

Notice of Motion, Proposed Order

Motion – Supporting Brief

Motion – Exhibits 1-8

Motion – Exhibits 9-20

Nutshell version:

NO!

… ahem… really, it’s that simple!

The hearing is set to begin on the Monday after next, November 16th, and we’re having a phone conference next Monday.  They ought to just toss it out, and tell them to come back when they’ve really got something.  I kinda feel sorry for PSEG, because they’re having to carry the water here when it’s not even their project.  PJM’s the one that should be in the hot seat.

The decline continues, of course, of course…

Xcel’s 3rd Quarter investor conference call was this morning.  I really enjoy these calls, because I get to hear them forced to tell bad news.  And the bad news for me this morning was that it wasn’t as bad as I’d hoped it would be.

You can listen to the call on Xcel’s site:

3rd Q 2009 Xcel Energy Earnings Conference Call

You can also get a transcript of the call at Seeking Alpha:

Transcript – will show up here soon

Today I actually listened to it, and Krie, who sits next to me most of the day, got all fired up, and jumped off the couch and started in on her “squeaky bark,” not the bit #100 lb. German Shepherd “something’s going on down on the street” roar, or her frantic “I see a cat and I want LUNCH!” lunge, buther “squeaky bark,” sounding like a Pomeranian, too cute, and each time David Sparby said something, she start squeaky barking, like she does when she hears puppies on a Doggyspace video… hilarious.  But I wonder what she was saying… or what she was hearing!

Anyway, here’s the real poop:

Xcel 3rd Quarter

or at the SEC site:

SEC – Xcel 3rd Quarter Earnings

It’s down, down, down, but … well, I want to see it down even more!!

Note the massive decrease in electric revenues, but that’s offset by an equal drop in fuel and purchased power, so the bottom line looks better.  What I care about is sales, though, not the bottom line, and it’s good news to see Electric Revenues drop by 955 in 2009 thus far, or a tadbit under 15%.  Works for me!!!

Looks to me like it’s down 3%!  Need, schmeed, there isn’t any…

Capitalism happens — let the market decide!!

XCEL DOESN’T NEED OR WANT MORE ELECTRICITY, XCEL DOESN’T WANT A POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENT WITH LS POWER, SUNRISE ENERGY, OR WHOEVER…

That was the most important thing to come out of last night’s meeting.  Mikey Bull was clear, stating in a most Norwegian way that “despite what Carol thinks, our load is growing,” and that they “won’t have a need… until 2016 or 2017.”   I hope that people LISTENED CAREFULLY and were thinking critically.

Shellene Johnson, CRVC, walked Bob Cupit through the siting review and permitting options:

REGULAR REVIEW

ALTERNATIVE REVIEW

LOCAL REVIEW

Bob was thrilled, I’m sure, he thought I’d put her up to it, but hey, I’m innocent — this is info that needs to be public, so that people understand all the options.  Shellene had questions, particularly where this was an issue that had come up way back when we worked on the County Essential Services ordinance, and wanted to beef up the county’s ordinance to give them some options if a project went through local review.  Local review is NOT a new issue for Chisago County, and if you recall, the SE Metro line went through the local review process.

Alan Muller was his usual delightful self, leading Blake Wheatley through a list of questions that demonstrated the “vaporware” nature of this project — he couldn’t or wouldn’t give us any information at all about the project.  He knew NOTINK!

What would be the output of this plant? Answer:
780 MW summer rating.  Over 800 winter rating.  [Gas turbines
make more power when the air is colder and more dense.]

How many generating units would there
be?
Answer: Don’t
know/haven’t decided.

Who would be the manufacturer of the combustion
turbines?       Answer:
Don’t know/haven’t decided.

Who would be the manufacturer of the steam
turbines?    Answer: Don’t
know/haven’t decided.

How many smokestacks would the plant have?
Answer: Don’t know/haven’t
decided.

How gallons or barrels of oil would be stored on the
site:
Answer: Don’t know/haven’t decided.

How much oil would be burned in a
year?
Answer: Don’t
know/haven’t decided.

In your air permit application, how many pounds per year of regulated air
pollutants would you be asking permission to put up your
smokestacks?          Answer:  Don’t know/haven’t
decided.

And so on …..

…he knew nothing at all about this, and that’s because there’s nothing to know.  There’s no project plan, no Power Purchase Agreement, no state permit applications, nada…  This isn’t a project, it’s a farce… Tom Micheletti could take lessons from Blake Wheatley.  Here’s the site plan, from the Oct 15 2009 Revised Draft Development Agreement:

WOW, that says a lot…

Take the time to read these:

Oct 15 2009 Revised Draft Development Agreement

Draft Host Fee Agreement

I promised to post a few things so people can learn about prior proposals to get an idea what this one means, so let’s do that.  Bear with me, this is interesting stuff!

MISO Queue #G-135

This MISO Interconnection study says that for 660MW of generation at the Chisago sub, lots of  transmission would need to be added.  Here’s what one of the two similar options looks like (it’s better in print than here, looks hard to read):

Next is an answer to “what exactly are they proposing” with a couple of prior applications for gas plants as examples of what to expect, what to look for:

Faribault Energy Park – Application

Blue Lake – Application

These two applications are important to see what gas plants are all about.  For example, the Faribault Energy Park is a 250MW plant, and here are some fun facts from the application:

A 250MW plant is 68 dB(A) 400 feet from the plant… what will a plant three+ times that be?

Here’s what that plant looks like – REMEMBER 750MW IS THREE TIMES THE SIZE OF A 250MW PLANT AND 855MW IS NEARLY FOUR TIMES AS LARGE:

Here’s a closer side view:

Here’s an emissions chart, and remember, the LS Power proposal is 3+ times this, so expect over three times the emissions:

And here’s a fun fact, from the 2004 Blue Lake application, showing their projected “need” back in 2004 that’s WAY overestimated:

From Xcel’s 2008 10-k, p. 10:

Capacity and Demand

Uninterrupted system peak demand for the NSP System’s electric utility for each of the last three years and the forecast for 2009, assuming normal weather, is listed below.

System Peak Demand (in MW)
2006         2007         2008         2009 Forecast
9,859        9,427         8,697             9,662

The peak demand for the NSP System typically occurs in the summer. The 2008 system peak demand for the NSP System occurred on July 29, 2008.

And now we know that instead of inexplicably going up in 2009, it’s going down.  DOWN, further down.  But note that in their 2008 10-k, Xcel admits that system peak was 8.697, lower than 2004.  That pushes out any need until when?  And the longer this drop continues, the further out and less probably any increased need is!  And remember, Blue Lake was added to address the 11,000MW need claimed in the application.  To get beyond that, how long will it take?  With conservation, probably forever, we’ll never need more!

So, folks, as you can see, this isn’t rocket science, and they have no plan, no Power Purchase Agreement, it isn’t needed, it isn’t wanted.  LS Power, go away.

From WSJ article below, the chart says it all…

Another great Wall Street Journal article came out, again noting that demand is DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.  This is pretty important given the massive infrastructure rush by the utilities.  It’s showing what we’ve known all along, the 800 lb. gorilla in the corner that could/should stop any new infrastructure buildout.

Rebecca Smith, Wall Street Journal, wrote this piece, published last week:

Electricity Prices Plummet

Here’s the PJM Report it’s based on:

2009 Quarterly State of the Market (January – June)

There are some choice snippets in the WSJ article, such as:

On Friday, the nation’s largest wholesale power market serving parts of
13 states east of the Rockies is expected to report that electricity
demand fell 4.4% in the first half of the year. That helped to push
down spot market prices by 40% during the first half of this year.

… and…

The price declines in this market, which extends from Delaware to
Michigan, come on top of a 2.7% drop in energy use in 2008 over 2007.

… and…

Power demand in Texas is down 3.2% so far this year due to business
contraction and reductions in employment which are causing many
households to economize.

… and …

But the flagging economy has resulted in a slump in demand that has jolted some energy markets. American Electric Power Co. and Southern Co., for example, both reported double-digit drops in industrial electricity use for the past quarter.

… and…

“There’s more supply than demand and prices are really low so it
doesn’t make sense to build anything,” says John Shelk, president of
the Electric Power Supply Association in Washington, D.C., a group that
represents power generators.

Once more with feeling… SUSQUEHANNA-ROSELAND TRANSMISSION IS NOT NEEDED!