Legalectric

Here it is, one of my favorite resources of all time — NERC’s Long Term Reliability Assessment. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) sets the reliability standards for our electric system. It comes out annually and gives an overview of our electric situation based on utility information forwarded to NERC. Logically, there’s some bias here, but NERC has inserted some reality orientation over the years, particularly in documentation of reserve margins, based on what’s up and running, and what’s likely to be built over the foreseeable future (knowing that all that’s planned is not gold).

You can find LTRAs going way, way back — I have them from 1998 forward, and now I see they’re going back to 1992, so I’ll grab those before they disappear. Here’s the list from their “Reliability Assessments” page, nope, doesn’t copy well, so you’ll have to go to the “Reliability Assessments” page, well worth the trip!

As for the 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, here ’tis:

And if you really want to dig in, here are Supplemental Charts and Graphs — what fun!

Supplemental Charts and Graphs

Here’s what you’ll find:

Here’s something that jumps out at me — the reserve margins (p. 13):

Forever, the standard reserve margin has been at 15%, but when they started this massive transmission build-out 20 years ago, the mantra was that by building so much transmission, by interconnecting everything, able to send those electrons from any “Point A” to any “Point B,” RESERVE MARGINS WOULD BE LOWER!! So take a look at these reserve margins, and do tell, why oh why is that “Figure 3” chart stretching all the way to 25%, and even more bizarre, WHY IS FIGURE 4 SHOWING MISO FIVE-YEAR PLANING RESERVE MARGIN — WINTER WAY UP TO 60%, AND AT ITS LOWEST, NEARLY 40%??? Looks to me that through 2029, we’re doing just fine. Note that it’s Summer 2029 that’s it’s just below 15% “Anticipated” and just above “Prospective” and every year there are more and more projects proposed. We are NOT going to freeze in the dark in an incubator without a job. Prove me wrong!!!

Back in 1999, in the midst of a transmission hearing, as I was seriously getting into the engineering, transmission specifications, electric reliability, and forecasting of transmission and generation, an engineer approached with a document in hand, the 1998 NERC Report, saying “YOU NEED THIS!” Yup, sure did. That report demonstrated that the histrionics about need for transmission was absurd. Oh well, they built it all anyway, and so much more to follow.

Thanks, NERC, for a little light reading in the dark depths of winter!

Written by someone who KNOWS, this book is great, and his testimony is even better!

George C. Loehr, Testimony, Hearings of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, July 31, 2008

His leading points?

And if you’re looking for some wonkish light reading, complete with SCADA and N-1 references, check out:

“We are only four meals from anarchy!” Maybe a few more, but remember virulent sturm and drang when people couldn’t get their hair done in 2020?!?!?!

What happens to the system when the CapX 2020 system goes down? And now MISO is proposing an even higher voltage 765KV “electric superhighway.”

Distributed generation, anyone??