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From WSJ article below, the chart says it all…

Another great Wall Street Journal article came out, again noting that demand is DOWN, DOWN, DOWN.  This is pretty important given the massive infrastructure rush by the utilities.  It’s showing what we’ve known all along, the 800 lb. gorilla in the corner that could/should stop any new infrastructure buildout.

Rebecca Smith, Wall Street Journal, wrote this piece, published last week:

Electricity Prices Plummet

Here’s the PJM Report it’s based on:

2009 Quarterly State of the Market (January – June)

There are some choice snippets in the WSJ article, such as:

On Friday, the nation’s largest wholesale power market serving parts of
13 states east of the Rockies is expected to report that electricity
demand fell 4.4% in the first half of the year. That helped to push
down spot market prices by 40% during the first half of this year.

… and…

The price declines in this market, which extends from Delaware to
Michigan, come on top of a 2.7% drop in energy use in 2008 over 2007.

… and…

Power demand in Texas is down 3.2% so far this year due to business
contraction and reductions in employment which are causing many
households to economize.

… and …

But the flagging economy has resulted in a slump in demand that has jolted some energy markets. American Electric Power Co. and Southern Co., for example, both reported double-digit drops in industrial electricity use for the past quarter.

… and…

“There’s more supply than demand and prices are really low so it
doesn’t make sense to build anything,” says John Shelk, president of
the Electric Power Supply Association in Washington, D.C., a group that
represents power generators.

Once more with feeling… SUSQUEHANNA-ROSELAND TRANSMISSION IS NOT NEEDED!

That’s Idiocy Returning on Parade…

LINK TO DELAWARE PSC’S DELMARVA POWER IRP DOCKET SITE

Tomorrow night in Dover, the Public Service Commission is opening the doors and it’s your turn to let them know what you think about Delmarva Power’s energy policy, how they’re getting their electricity, what sort of generation it’s coming from, what they’re doing (not) about conservation and efficiency, and what sort of generation you want them to use, i.e., get wind on line NOW!  And tell them we don’t need no stinkin’ transmission!

This is your opportunity.  They won’t let parties testify, so it’s your turn to step up to the plate.

Now for some background.  All the PSC blurbs call this the 3rd Delmarva Power IRP, but it’s not, it’s their third attempt to get it right, and the last one was so bad that they spent years trying and last November submitted a redo as asked by PSC, then a month later, they send a lame cover letter saying that they want to count that November redo attempt as the one due December 1, 2008.

So the PSC grabs that November 2008 attempt and accepts it.  EH???

Right… whatever.

Lame Cover Letter – December 1, 2008

IRP Main Document

Appendix A – Load Forecast

Appendix B – Demand Resources

Appendix C – Resource Model Update

Appendix D – Cost Recovery

You might remember Delmarva Power’s Todd Goodman’s outrageous behavior at the last IRP meeting in December, 2008.  AWARD FOR TODD GOODMAN, DELMARVA POWER.

Well, the Delmarva Power IRP saga continues, and the Workshop, Public Comment session…. whatever it is, it’s tomorrow night.

Tell the PSC that it’s time Delmarva Power get serious about conservation, that we want coal plants shut down, that it’s time to get wind on line, and that we do NOT want the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway transmission line (you know, that line that runs from coal plants SW of Delaware, up through Indian River and to Salem.  PJM admits that the Indian River to Salem part of it is not needed, and it’s time to get the WHOLE truth out, that the entire line is not needed.  See Mid-Atlantic MAPP line cut short).

COME TO THE PSC’S DELMARVA POWER IRP WORKSHOP… PUBLIC COMMENT SESSION… JUST COME AND TELL THEM WHAT YOU THINK?

Delmarva Power’s IRP is based on an annual increase in demand of 1.9%.  Uh-huh… right…

Look what has been happening to electrical use:

Hmmmmmmmmmm, do you see what I seeeeeeeeeeeeee…

Regulated T&D Sales have gone down.

Default T&D Sales have taken a significant dive.

Despite that, what do they project in the IRP?  From their IRP Appendix A:

Energy use, measured in MWh, has been dropping significantly for years… but we knew that…

Now what about peak?  The Delmarva peak isn’t in their 10-Ks, but here’s PJM:

2008 Peak               136,310MW

Projected Peak    134,430MW

DOWN      1,880MW

DOWN           1.4%

And with 165,200MW of generation and a reserve margin of 28.6% (15% necessary) which even PJM describes as “well in excess,” suffice it to say PJM doesn’t need new power anytime soon.

Read it all here:

PJM 2009 Summer Preseasonal Assessment

And here’s some history – PJM’s revenue decreased 8% in 2008 (p. 9 of 44):

2008 PJM Financial Report

And remember, PEPCO, Delmarva Power’s parent, says that it may not sell shares to finance the MAPP line — so how would they finance it… or would they just admit that it’s not needed and not build it?

Pepco CFO May Postpone Investment to Avoid Share Sale

By Katarzyna Klimasinska

June 26 (Bloomberg) — Pepco Holdings Inc.’s new chief financial officer, Anthony Kamerick, is considering postponing some investments beyond 2010 to prevent selling shares below book value.

Pepco, the owner of Washington’s electric utility, currently plans about $1 billion in total capital projects for 2010, mainly on the Mid-Atlantic Power Pathway transmission line and smart grid, Kamerick said. The completion of the transmission line, also known as MAPP, has already been delayed by a year.

“We have to balance, obviously, the need to make sure our system is safe and reliable for the customers,” Kamerick said in a telephone interview yesterday from Washington, where the company is based. “It’s a delicate balance.”

MAPP is scheduled to start service in June 2014 and will run from northern Virginia, across southern Maryland and Chesapeake Bay, to Indian River, Delaware.

Smart grids will be able to detect power failures and automatically isolate them, increasing the reliability of the power system, according to Pepco.

Pepco sold shares at $16.50 each in November and has had a 25 percent decline so far this year. The current price represents 72 percent of book value, or assets minus liabilities, per share, according to a Bloomberg calculation from company data.

Pepco fell 3 cents to $13.39 in composite trading on the New York Stock Exchange.

Kamerick replaced Paul Barry, who resigned, on June 12. He has worked for Pepco and its predecessor, Potomac Electric Power Co., since 1970, most recently as chief regulatory officer.

A quick post before heading off to the PUC for more CapX 2020…

A new little birdie sent some delightful PJM info, all about decreased demand, keep in mind, this is 2006-2007, and NOTE IT WAS ALREADY DROPPING THEN.

From FERC – Electric Power Markets PJM:

All time peak demand: 144,644 MW (set August 2, 2006)

Peak demand growth (2006-2007): Peak demand declined 3.6%

CLICK HERE FOR:  PJM State of the Market – 2008

There, you’ll find PJM State of the Market, Vol. 1 & 2

PJM State of the Market Report Volume 1
Pg 12: “Aggregate supply increased by about 15 MH when comparing the summer of 2008 to 2007 while aggregate peak load decreased by 9,328 MW …”
Pg 22: ” In the Real Time Market in 2008 there were net exports at 16 of PJM’s 20 interfaces …”
Pg 31: “Imports & Exports Net exchange decreased 248.5 MW …..)
Pg 45 : ” Demand … It is not clear why the demand identified in the market solution is consistently less than the demand identified by the system operators.”
Pg 50: discussion on Congestion  & its costs

PJM State of the Market, Vol. 1

PJM State of the Market, Vol. 2

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