June 29th, 2011
Remember how hot it was back a couple of weeks ago? Xcel’s Tim Carlsgaard was again bragging about Xcel’s peak:
There’s plenty of time this summer to ramp it up higher, but so far, 9,083.
Here’s Xcel’s peak demand for the last decade, taken from their 10-Ks filed with the SEC:
Carlsgaard’s number came from an informal calculation or two, interruptible service was part of it, and I think it was deducted, but you never can be sure with a PR shill!!! Anyway, 9,083MW is nothing to write home about. If you remember, Capx 2020 was based on a 2.4% increase ANNUALLY. If we’d done that, starting from 2005, we’d be at:
So we’re down about 1,600MW from their projections, and from what CapX was based on…
Their projections of a 2.4% increase annually add up quickly:
2005 - 9,212
2006 - 9,433
2007 - 9,659
2008 - 9,891
2009 – 10,128
2010 – 10,371
2011 – 10,620
In 2006 they jumped ahead of projections by a couple of years, but since then have dropped further and further behind, now with a peak trailing behind the peak of 2005…
So one way of looking at it is that they’ve pushed the “need” for additional power out for years.
Another way of looking at it is that they’re about three 500MW coal plants shy of what they projected.
Another way of looking at it is that they 1,600MW short is about Prairie Island’s and Monticello’s three nuclear reactors short.
Another way if looking at it is that it’s 1,00MW of cheap generation for wholesale and there’s plenty of room on 2,050-2,211 MVA (4,100-4,422 MVA double circuited) CapX 2020 transmission to ship that over to points east… (see MCEA, ME3, Waltons Schedin IR3)
So Tim, do tell, where am I off here??? p.s. Always check my math, I’m an attorney, not a vet, because my brain has grey sponge in the math department.