summersmile
(Yes, that’s Summer grrrrrrrrrrl.)

Remember how hot it was back a couple of weeks ago?  Xcel’s Tim Carlsgaard was again bragging about Xcel’s peak:

9,083 MW

There’s plenty of time this summer to ramp it up higher, but so far, 9,083.

Here’s Xcel’s peak demand for the last decade, taken from their 10-Ks filed with the SEC:

demandchartCarlsgaard’s number came from an informal calculation or two, interruptible service was part of it, and I think it was deducted, but you never can be sure with a PR shill!!!  Anyway, 9,083MW is nothing to write home about.  If you remember, Capx 2020 was based on a 2.4% increase ANNUALLY.  If we’d done that, starting from 2005, we’d be at:

10,620 MW

So we’re down about 1,600MW from their projections, and from what CapX was based on…

Their projections of a 2.4% increase annually add up quickly:

2005  -   9,212

2006 -   9,433

2007 -   9,659

2008 -   9,891

2009 – 10,128

2010 – 10,371

2011 – 10,620

In 2006 they jumped ahead of projections by a couple of years, but since then have dropped further and further behind, now with a peak trailing behind the peak of 2005…

So one way of looking at it is that they’ve pushed the “need” for additional power out for years.

Another way of looking at it is that they’re about three 500MW coal plants shy of what they projected.

Another way of looking at it is that they 1,600MW short is about Prairie Island’s and Monticello’s three nuclear reactors short.

Another way if looking at it is that it’s 1,00MW of cheap generation for wholesale and there’s plenty of room on 2,050-2,211 MVA (4,100-4,422 MVA double circuited) CapX 2020 transmission to ship that over to points east…  (see MCEA, ME3, Waltons Schedin IR3)

So Tim, do tell, where am I off here???   p.s.  Always check my math, I’m an attorney, not a vet, because my brain has grey sponge in the math department.

One Response to “Xcel had 9,083 peak in June?”

  1. Jeff Falk Says:

    How do you know where Carlgaard’s number came from? If you spoke with him, that’s great, but if not?? To make sense of peak demand one needs to consider weather. The peaks come in the summer during hot spells. Just because the “peak” peak demand came in 2006 and has been lower since does not imply “peak” peak demand is decreasing. “Peak” peak demand is a theoretical concept which should be analyzed based upon the trend in “regular” demand and the potential for hot spells. Yes it is marshmallowwy but should not be distorted. I would suggest we need to get them to be more explicit about the justifications for their numbers and formulas. They have not supplied enough information to judge their predictions, etc.
    By the way, I am doing these comments because your site is the only one around from which I can get good information even if I disagree.

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